UFC 270 | Insider Trading | From PredictionStrike & Alex True
What's up everyone, and welcome to another beautiful Saturday! It might be raining where you are, or maybe you have to shovel the driveway – but tonight, we have UFC action, so it's a beautiful day! To celebrate, and to get us educated on all things UFC 270, I asked Andrew Gombas to come back and provide us with that Insider knowledge! We got a lot of positive feedback last week, so I figured, let's bring him back one more time!
The most coveted belt in all the world is on the line tonight, and a title fight trilogy is what we have in store! Not to mention a plethora of new faces making their UFC debut. It will be a card to remember folk, so don’t miss out! Now, Andrew is going to fill our brains with a ton of knowledge here in the next couple minutes, but if that is not enough for you, I implore you to check out the Daily Dividends Podcast this week, “UFC Roundtable”. Myself, along with PredictionStrike’s very own Nico Christie joined our host Dan to talk all things UFC. Make sure to check it out before the fights get under way! Finally, make sure to check out the PredictionStrike Discord! We have a very passionate group of investors, and I know we will all be vocal tonight during the fights. Make sure to check it out and talk trades while the fights go on! If you can’t find the Discord (it’s right here), send me a Twitter DM, and I will make sure you find your way into the discussion.
Alright, no more waiting – onto the good stuff! Ladies and Gentlemen, Andrew Gombas.
Alex: Welcome back Andrew! It’s unusual for me to have the same Insider two weeks in a row, so I rarely get the chance to reflect on the previous fight card, but we certainly have that opportunity today! Before we get into UFC 270, do you want to share with the readers some of your thoughts on Fight Night? Anyone surprise you in a good way, or maybe disappoint you?
Andrew: Thanks for having me back. It was great to see some fights on Saturday night again. I was very pleased with the results, particularly from a betting perspective. I bet Calvin Kattar +205, Jaime Pickett +139, Katlyn Chookagian -150, and the under 2.5 rounds in the Borschev fight, so I’m hoping to continue that streak this week. I was most impressed with Katlyn Chookagin, Calvin Kattar, and Court McGee. All had great wins and career-defining performances.
Alex: Let’s now turn our attention to tonight’s card, with two titles on the line. Technically three if you count Gane’s interim belt… But, before we get to the big boys, we need to talk about the newbies. We have EIGHT debut fighters on this card, so even the most grizzled UFC fans will see some new faces tonight. Help educate the readers on some of the freshmen. Is there anyone we should be keeping an eye on?
Andrew: Definitely keep an eye on Michael Morales ($1.06). He is only 21 years old and has a perfect 12-0 record. He is a welterweight with a good reach and well-rounded skill set. He takes on Trevin Giles ($1.00) this weekend. He has a very high ceiling, if you are looking for a long-term investment opportunity. Another fighter to keep an eye on is Jack Della Maddalena ($1.44). He looked really good on the Contender’s Series and is a -300 favorite against Pete Rodriguez ($0.85).
Alex: I know you have experience trading UFC fighters on PredictionStrike, so I am sure you are aware of the immediate sell off that sometimes happens after results are posted. What is your strategy after the fight? Do you sell right away, or are you more of a long-term investor, and why?
Andrew: This is a great question. I mainly focus on long-term investing. More specifically, I try to invest in younger/newer fighters that are still undervalued and unknown by the general public. Some of my current long-term investments are in Khamzat Chimaev (+8%, $4.65), Ilia Topuria (-15%, $1.24), and Shavkat Rakhmonov (+14%, $1.41).
Alex: Ok, the moment they have been waiting for, let's talk about the two title fights. First, we have the third fight in one of the greatest fight trilogies in the history of the UFC, Brandon Moreno (+2%, $5.12) vs. Deiveson Figueiredo ($4.77) for the flyweight title, and the granddaddy of them all, Francis Ngannou (+3%, $5.24) vs. Ciryl Gane (+5%, $5.32) for the undisputed heavyweight champion of the world! In my opinion, these two fights are razor thin, so anything could happen. Do you have any predictions for the fight, or any interesting storylines to keep in mind going into tonight?
Andrew: Both of these title fights are awesome and I can’t wait to enjoy them. In the main event, I’m picking Ciryl Gane to get it done. Ciryl is the more technical striker. He is light on his feet and throws a lot of kicks. Francis Ngannou's great equalizer is his power, but I believe Gane will be able to avoid the big shot and win this fight down the stretch. Brandon Moreno and Deiveson Figueiredo are going to fight for a third time and I believe the outcome will mimic the second fight. The first outing between these two was a draw. The second outing was a dominant victory for Moreno. The main difference in the second fight was that Moreno didn't let Figueiredo lead on the feet and Figueiredo looked lost. I anticipate Moreno utilizing a jab and leg kicks to settle this trilogy once and for all.
Alex: Since you are a handicapper by trade, I would be remiss if I didn't ask! What is your best bet of the night, and what would you bet it up to?
Andrew: My best bet of the night is Matt Frevola at anything better than a -200 price tag. He has a significant edge in cardio, experience and grappling. Valdez has a shot to knock him out early, but if Frevola can avoid that, he will dominate this fight. I think a more accurate price tag would be -250/-300.
Alex: And once again Andrew, can you share with everyone where they can find your work?
Andrew: Absolutely! Every Wednesday at 5:30 PM EST, I do a show with Jonathan Coachman called “The Early Edge.” I do prediction and analysis with a betting focus for every UFC card. You can find that HERE.
On Thursdays at 7 PM EST, I do a podcast breaking down every UFC card called “The Magic & Andrew MMA Betting Podcast”. My colleague and I give our thoughts on every fight on the card, from top to bottom.
I also have a Patreon, where subscribers get notified of my bets right when I place them, so they can bet right after me and get the same number.
Last but not least, my twitter handle is @betsandpicksmma. Feel free to message me anytime!
There it is everyone! Go check out Andrew’s content, follow him on Twitter, and make sure to get that money right before the fights tonight! I look forward to seeing you all in the Discord tonight for a little PredictionStrike UFC “Watch Party!” Until then guys…