PredictionStrike's Blue Chips & Penny Stocks: UFC 273!
Happy Saturday fight fans, and welcome to a UFC centric article. After eight straight weeks of UFC action, we finally had a break last week. It gave us a chance to take a deep breath, and prepare ourselves for what should be an epic card tonight with UFC 273. This week has a little something for everyone, including baseball opening Weekend, final days of the NBA season, NFL offseason transactions, or, my personal favorite, the Masters. No wonder it feels like the UFC card has been somewhat slept on. But one thing I can promise you, it will not disappoint.
Not only do we have two title fights headlining the card, but we FINALLY have PredictionStrike favorite Khamzat Chimaev (+11%, $10.61) entering the octagon facing his toughest opponent to date, Gilbert Burns (+.5%, $4.56). I for one am very excited for this card, and I hope this short article gets you in the fighting mood too. I plan on keeping it short, because Tiger is most likely on the front nine by the time you are reading this, and I know I can only keep your attention for a few minutes!
Before we jump into the UFC action, I want to remind you all about the deposit bonus going on right now! To celebrate the start of the MLB season, the big bosses have blessed us with a “Home Run” of a bonus offer! (Cheesy level 11/10). But seriously, for every $25 you deposit, you will get a free share of a random athlete. Think about the possibilities! This offer is up to $5,000, so you could potentially walk away with 200 Khamzat shares, or maybe even 200 Mike Trout shares. Free money, people! Make sure to bolster that portfolio, and make that money all season long! Ok, now let's chat UFC!
The Big Guns
Alright, let's be honest about this card. It is incredibly top heavy. We cannot complain any time we get two title fights, and a fight with the most talked about fighter in the UFC, but let's be real… this card could use some work outside of the final three bouts. Don’t get me wrong, a fight like Raquel Pennington and Aspen Ladd could literally be a Fight Night Co-Main event, but when it’s buried on the prelims, and exciting fights like Marcin Tyburia vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik being canceled last second, we really have to pray that the big three fights at the top of the card pays offs. Khamzat will be the talk of the card, but the co-main and main event are both title fights, which is a pretty awesome caveat. I think the other reason why this card isn’t getting much attention is because all three of the big fights are so wide in betting lines. We are going into the fights basically knowing who is going to win. We have been treated to some championship fights lately with pretty close lines. When Ngannou beat Cyril Gane at UFC 270, he closed roughly around +125, making him a slight underdog. When Charles Olivera beat Poirier, he was also a slight underdog at +110. Adesanya beat Whittaker at a comfortable -300 line, but even that is considered a “moderate” favorite. Conversely, these are the odds for tonights three headlining fights.
- Alexander Volkanovski is a -800 favorite over The Korean Zombie, Chan Sung Jung
- Petr Yan is a -500 favorite over Aljamain Sterling
- Khamzat Chimaev is a -510 favorite over Gilbert Burns
These are numbers we haven’t seen for a main event since Amanda Nunes fought Juliana Pena, and we all remember how that went. Don’t get me wrong, I am really excited for these fights, but it takes a little juice out of the game when you know the probability for the fights is 83% or higher based on the odds. But, that also means if someone pulls off the upset, it is that more memorable! So glass is half full once again. Here is what I am thinking, especially for these three fights.
Volkanovski vs. Korean Zombie
ALEXANDER The Great might be the most under-appreciated fighter on the entire UFC roster right now. Not only is he the undisputed Featherweight Champion, but he is also the number three pound for pound fighter in the world. I don’t want to speak poorly on the Korean Zombie, because the dude is an absolute legend, but Volk will run right through him. He is so talented at forcing his will on his opponent, and Sung Jung won’t have any say in the matter. This card could have been even better if Volkanovski was to face his original opponent, Max Holloway for the much anticipated trilogy fight. Max unfortunately had to withdraw due to injury, and Zombie stepped up to face the challenge. Unfortunately, everyone thinks he will lose, it's just a question of when, not if. In my opinion, this move simply comes down to value, and how PredictionStrike beats out the conventional sports book. Let me explain. If you wanted to make a crisp $100 bill on Volkanovski to win, you would have to wager $800 at your local sportsbook. If Volk wins, congratulations, you win the $800 back, plus the additional $100 profit. If Volkanovski somehow loses the fight, you will lose all $800 and cry yourself to sleep tonight. On PredictionStrike, as we all know, it’s quite different. Let’s say you want to invest the max $500 on Alexander Volkanovski at $5.47 (price of writing.) If Volkanovski wins by either KO/TKO or submission, your stock price will go up roughly 15%. If you do the math, 15% of $500 is roughly $75 profit. $5.47 Conversely, if Zombie wins the fight, Alexander’s share price will go down roughly 27%, equating to $135. So, here are your two options. Wager on Volk and win $100, and potentially lose $800, or invest in Volk and win $75 with a potential to lose $135. I don’t think it takes a rocket scientist to understand which side has EXTREME value. Good luck!
Petr Yan vs. Aljamain Sterling
The bitter grudge match finally comes to a conclusion after months and months of anticipation. If you are unfamiliar with this fight, Aljo and Yan fought a while back for the belt, which Aljo currently holds, and Yan was whoopin that ass, until the dreaded knee from hell. I don’t know what Yan was thinking, but he threw the most obviously illegal knee in the world. Depending on who you talk to, Sterling is undeserving of the belt he is currently holding, but in my opinion rules are rules. Petr broke them, and he now faces the consequences. Needless to say a rematch needed to be rescheduled, the problem was, Aljo needed neck surgery roughly a year ago, pushing everything back. During the recovery, an interim belt was fought for by Cody Sandhagen and Petr last October. Sandhagen is a killer, and Yan steamrolled him like fresh pavement. I am not knocking Cody in the slightest, but I think it’s important to note how impressive Petr Yan is in the bantamweight division. Like i said earlier, Sterling is the rightful holder of the belt, because rules are rules, but Yan should be the guy with the belt around his weist if it wasn’t for that stupid knee. I think Yan will go out and make sure everyone knows he was the main man all along, and to put some respect on his name. Yan is currently ranked number nine in the pound for pound rankings, and a dominant performance tonight might push him up the rankings. Like the Volkanovski fight, this screams value. Since Yan is favored with a ridiculous line of -500. This gives him a roughly 83% chance of winning the fight. Let's break down the value again. If you want to win $100 at a sports book, you must fork over $500. If you win, you get back the $500, plus the additional $100 profit. If Aljo comes out with his new neck and wins this and shuts up all the critics, all the Yan betters lose their $500, and once again, go home crying. On PredictionStrike, we can invest a max of $500. If the scenario plays out where Aljo wins, Yan investors will only lose 22%, or $110. If Yan wins by TKO/KO or submission, investors will profit 18%, or roughly $90. So, which do you prefer? Wager and potentially lose $500, or invest, and potentially lose $110? How about gain? Is the difference between $90 and $100 so big, you are willing to risk damn near $400 extra? Once again, the safe investment is the favorite.
Khamzat Chimeav vs. Gilbert Burns
For as much as he has been talked about, it's incredible to consider this will be Khamzat's first fight in the octagon since UFC was introduced to the platform. Will he live up to the hype and his inflated stock price? Rember, he IPO’d right around $2.30, and at the time of writing, sits at $6.11. This is all without winning a single fight. I personally think Khamzat has the physique and the skillsets to be one of the greatest fighters the UFC has ever seen, but am I willing to risk a huge chunk of money if I am wrong? Yan and Volkanovski had much closer prices to their opponents, so the risk/reward is palatable. For Chimeav, it is not. If Khamzat loses, his stock price will take a 26% hit. This is not great, but it’s not necessarily terrible in a bubble. The real issue comes with the avalanche of panic selling that will happen after the fight, win or lose. Anyone remember what happened to Sean O’Malley? His stock crashed so much, people who had 15-20% profits, ended up losing 10-15% on their investment, and that was after a win! Imagine if Burns implements the perfect gameplan, and Chimeav tanks? Do you want to be the one holding the bag? If you are a Khamzat share holder, don’t panic right away. I might sound doom and gloom, but I think he will win, and pretty handedly. I strongly suggest anyone not in Khamzat to ignore the FOMO and wait until after this fight is clear in our rearview. I am going to predict right now, on the morning of UFC 273, that if Khamzat wins the fight, his stock price will be under $6.00 tomorrow morning. It might sound crazy, but I have been around the block long enough to remember tendencies in the market. The stock will rise with a win, and everyone will sell for short term profits, making the stock price deflate to pre fight levels. I am not casting shade on anyone who does this by the way. I applaud anyone who can flip a profit, I am just saying don’t be surprised if you end up being negative in your investment if you recently got in on the Khamzat train. My advice to you. Do not panic. Hold onto your Khamzat shares near and dear to your heart. Do not sell until he is a triple title holder, and his face is etched into the side of a mountain. This stock could be $10+ for you some day, the only question is, do you have the patience.
Alright everyone. That is enough for me! Go watch Tiger in the morning, and prep for the prelims in a couple hours! We have a lot of fights for you tonight, so get ready! Don’t forget the deposit bonus, and to check out the UFC tab in the PredictionStrike Discord. I will post all my fight predictions in there a couple hours before the prelims! Let’s make some money together tonight!