Blue Chips and Penny Stocks, MMA Edition!
2023 is off and running, and I’m just trying to keep up! Welcome to the first rendition of the Blue Chips and Penny Stocks breakdown, focusing our attention on the massive PPV the UFC is putting together in Brazil this weekend!
It might be a little late, but Santa has finally delivered the first PPV of the year, and boy did Buddy the Elf and his little friends treat us with a banger of a card! If you are reading this, you obviously have money invested in the world’s best financial vehicle, PredictionStrike, but maybe not all of you are vested in the best subcategory on the platform…. The wonderful world of MMA, and more specifically, the fighters associated with the UFC. I want to use this article to give a little primer for those new investors, who might not be familiar with how the trading works for UFC, and any tips and tricks I can dish out along the way. I will end the article by discussing a couple of the fighters performing at UFC 283, and who might be a worthwhile investment. On a personal level, I have been investing with PredictionStrike for close to three years now, and the UFC is by far my most profitable sport. So if you aren’t invested in these MMA athletes yet, or want to learn how to maximize profit potentials, this will be an awesome article to read. If you have any additional questions, or want additional clarity, feel free to reach out! You can find me on Twitter, @ChipsStocks. Give me a follow, and send me a DM. You can also find a very educated bunch on the PS Discord, specifically in the UFC chat, who are happy to help with investment ideas. Shout out to Papa and Warriors. Ok, now that all that is covered, let's dive in!
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And now, on to our expert's analysis of this week's action.
Let's start from the very beginning, and explain one of the questions I get most often when discussing the MMA athletes; How is the price determined? To answer this question, we have to go back to the inception of UFC fighters on the PredictionStrike marketplace. Travel back in time with me to the week of November 6th, 2021. Place, a buzzing New York City, because the UFC is making its triumphant return to MSG for UFC 268. The card is absolutely stacked, and is headlined by a pair of title fights. In the co-main, Rose Namajunas defeated Weili Zhang in an epic split decision victory to retain the women's strawweight belt. And in the headliner, the then pound for pound number one fighter in the world Kamaru Usman defeated Colby Covington to retain his welterweight belt. This card also produced the 2021 fight of the year between Justin Gaethje and Michael Chandler. Weeks leading up to the card, PredictionStrike teased that UFC fighters will be included on the platform. Almost the entire roster of fighters were released at the same time, and they were all given an initial price, based off the up to date UFC official rankings. All champions at that time were priced at $5.00 a share across the board. As the rankings went lower and lower, so did the initial stock prices.
Now, if you are brand spanking new to the MMA side of investing, you might be interested to hear how the stock price moves. You are probably more familiar with the more statistical algorithms for football, baseball, soccer, and basketball. With MMA, there are no fantasy point projections when you are considering who to invest in. It is simply who wins, and who loses. If you invested in Kamaru Usman for UFC 268, your investment would have gone up, and if you invested in Colby Covington, your investment would have gone down. The amount the two fighters go up/down is based off the price of the fighters. So, in a hypothetical world, let's say Usman and Covington were the exact same price at UFC 268. Usman, the winner, would have a 15% return on his stock price. Colby would have a -15% on his stock price. If Usman recorded a knockout, a TKO, or a submission, a bonus would have been applied on top of the 15%, and a penalty would go against Colby. This is the formula for all fighters, regardless if it's a championship main event, or if it's the first event of the evening.
I will use this weekend's main event as an example. UFC 283 will be headlined by former light heavyweight champion, Glover Texiera. Glover was the champion when the UFC first debuted, so his initial price was $5.00 a share, but has since lost his last fight and title to Jiri Prochazka, and is currently sitting at $4.03 a share. Jiri recently was injured in training, so the light heavyweight belt has been vacated. Glover will be fighting to reclaim his belt, and will face off with Jamahal Hill, currently priced at $3.35 a share. As you can see, we have a noticeable price differential. Glover is the more expensive stock, so let's start with him winning. If Glover wins, the stock price adjustment of both fighters will be between 12-13%. For Glover, he will go up 12-13%, and for Hill, he will go down the same. The bigger the difference, the less he will go up. Now, let's pivot to Hill. If Hill wins the belt, he will go up around 18%, and Texiera will go down the same.
UFC stocks have a very different price adjustment algorithm compared to the ball sports, but they do have one major similarity. All stock prices, regardless of sport, move up and down based on volume. Check out the PredictionStrike ‘How it Works’ section on volume for specifics, but in short, if a lot of people buy, the price goes up, and if a lot of people sell, the price goes down. This leads to another major factor when it comes to UFC investing. UFC fighters only fight every three months on average. Some fight more often, some fight maybe once a year. So watch out for waves of buying/selling!
Let me be clear, I am not an investment professional, so don’t take anything I say as financial advice, but I do want to share with you one of my favorite investment tips for UFC investing. “Buy early, and be patient.”
I have so much I want to share, but I can't keep your attention all day! Let's quickly go over some fights happening this weekend. First, let's go over the highly anticipated fight we have already discussed.
Glover Texeria ($4.03) looks to reclaim his belt vs Jamahal Hill (+.55%, $3.35) in a light heavyweight bout. This fight has value written all over it, especially from a PredictionStrike perspective. As we already know, Jamahal Hill is priced a decent amount less than Glover, so a win will garner him a hefty 18% boost in price, pre bonus, while only risking 12-13% decrease. If you are a sucker for value, Hill is your man. Currently, Hill is a slight favorite in the world of sports gambling. I tend to not mix the two because PredictionStrike is so much different then gambling, but the odds do help get an understanding of who “should” win. I think Glover has more paths to victory over Hill, but it’s so close, and I don’t have enough conviction. For me, this is a stay away.
The first fight we discussed, I had no real lean one way or another. This fight is different. I am full steam ahead on Brandon Moreno, and for a few good reasons. Moreno is roughly $0.80 cheaper at the time of writing, giving Brandon great value in terms of stock prices. This is mostly because of the head-to-head matchup where we saw a dramatic change in prices. That fight was razor thin, and it could have honestly gone either way. In the meantime, Figgy got injured and went through a full recovery, while Brandon fought one of the toughest flyweights in the division in Kai Kara-France. In my opinion, this is a situation where Figgy is on the dissent in his career, while Brandon is on his way to his peak. Figgy is 35 years old, which is ancient in that division, and is six years Brandon’s senior. I think all signs lead to a Brandon Moreno championship performance, and a stock price that sees a healthy increase in price.
Alright that is enough for one article. If you made it this far, I appreciate it. This might have been my longest article to date, and I still have so much more to share. I intend to do more “educational” material like this more often if it seems to be helpful, so let me know if you liked what you read! Feel free to hit me up on twitter or send me a message in the Discord. Enjoy NFL Wild Card action, and the big PPV UFC fight! Let's make some money!
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