PredictionStrike Weekly Update: Death, Taxes, and Pre-Season Injuries
Welcome to another edition of PredictionStrike's Weekly Update, where we'll break down some of the most interesting storylines, talk about the biggest & best performances, and try to tie it all back to athletes' stock prices and how we should be viewing the markets.
Analytics will tell you to devalue running backs for a million reasons, #1 being that you can replace their value rather easily. But still, when an RB1 goes down, we all go into panic mode. There's value in a sure thing, in confidence, and in continuation. Finding that next guy up in theory is doable, but in practice, it's much more difficult. That said, if you can find those guys, while team will stay afloat, your portfolio might fly. Let's talk about some of the highest profile injuries over these past couple weeks, pay our respects, and try to predict the future. First up:
Dobbins and Gus Edwards
Let me tell you, I was excited as anyone for JK Dobbins ($5.33/share) sophomore season. In his rookie campaign, Dobbins went for 805 YDs on 134 carries, & 9 TDs. Per Ebony Bird, his avg 6YDs per carry was the 2nd highest for a rookie since 1970, and his 7 consecutive games with a rushing TD was the 2nd longest streak by a rookie in NFL history. Dobbins was expected to get an increased workload this season, and it’s the bummer of all bummers that we don’t get to see that come to fruition. Nonetheless, he’ll be back in Year 3, and until then… Gus Edwards ($1.71/share), arguably one of the best backup running backs in the game will slide into the RB1 slot. The truth of the matter is that Edwards was going to get his touches anyway, and now it'll simply be a higher volume. Yahoo Sports points out that in each of the last three seasons, Edwards is one of only 6 RBs to total 700+ rushing yards… putting him in the company of Ezekiel Elliot ($4.94/share), Aaron Jones ($17.59/share), Nick Chubb ($8.42/share), Derrick Henry ($42.23/share), and Alvin Kamara ($5.58/share). Edwards might not have the pass catching skills that some of these guys have, but he’s only going up from where he stands now. We’ll be rooting for Dobbins in the long term, but Edwards is one hell of a draw for the time being.
Etienne and James Robinson