Stocks to Target this NFL Sunday, 10/31

I said it last week and I'll say it again - If I know one thing, its that no one likes to be bothered on Sundays, so we’ll keep this quick. Let's talk about the most exciting games of the day and how they relate to our favorite stocks and our green portfolios.


The 1pm EST Slate

Buffalo started off Miami’s 6 game losing streak in Week 2 when they ventured down south and clobbered ‘em, 35-0, also sending Tua (+14%, $4.51/share) into a 3 week stand on the IR. Despite the loss to Atlanta, Tua came back to life last week and instilled some hope in fans & shareholders alike… but how long will that last? The Bills defense will be well rested coming off their bye, and combine that prowess with the fact that Miami allows the 7th most QB pressures… its not looking good for Tua & Co. Jaylen Waddle (+3%, $5.98/share) has been one of few bright spots for the Dolphins this season, being up +21% on the season, maybe he can continue that. All that being said – its on the other side of the field that our interest really piques. The Dolphins allow the 5th most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers… so we’re watching Emmanuel Sanders (+3%, $2.98/share) & Stefon Diggs (+6%, $10.04/share). We’re still infatuated with Dawson Knox (-9%, $1.50/share), still up +117% on the season despite that -9% after his last appearance, but he’s been ruled out for at least one more game, so we’ll get back on the Cole Beasley (+20%, $6.26/share) train. The Bills are going to steamroll these divisional rivals, and there will be gains to be had on maybe all Bills pass-catchers… we’ll take it where we can get it.

  • Atlanta seems to finally have unlocked Kyle Pitts (+21%, $6.41/share) as more than TE, something like a cheat code, and it’s showing returns – he’s up +57% since finding his footing.
  • Derrick Henry (-6%, $37.40/share) will likely go back to his role as a runner, leaving the pass-throwing behind. Despite the brief dip last week, he’s up +77% on the season so far.
  • Was the brutal, embarrassing, and sad beatdown by the Patriots not enough. The Jets are an enzyme for good stock performance. Buy the Bengals. Buy all the Bengals. Did you know Ja’Marr Chase (+31%, $11.69/share) is a Bengal?
  • With the injuries to Chubb (0%, $8.75/share) and Hunt (-6%, $14.56/share), D’Ernest Johnson (+30%, $1.71/share) has established himself as something like the third head of a three-headed, not two-headed, monster. The Browns run the ball and they run it well, despite who the engine is. And also – Johnson might just be awesome.
  • Stafford (+7%, $6.55/share) and Cooper Kupp (+20%, $9.61/share) have been an unstoppable force these past few weeks. The Texans are barely trying to win, and now they have to deal with the trade rumors for their former QB – likely not going to help. Kupp is up +103% on the season, and we’re expecting him and his best friend / QB to stroll into some more alpha this afternoon.

The 4pm EST Slate

The Chargers are considered the favorite here, but there’s two ways to evaluate the stocks of the guys in this game. The Pats love to run, and the Chargers have one of, if not the, worst run defense in the NFL. Enter Damien Harris (+26%, $1.16/share) and Brandon Bolden (+75%, $1.90/share). The other way? The Chargers absolutely sling the ball, and the Patriots have been middle of the pack at defending the pass. The Patriots will be able to score, Justin Herbert (-12%, $9.81/share) and his arsenal will have to outscore them. They got their butts kicked against the Ravens, but Keenan Allen (-10%, $2.85/share), Mike Williams (-15%, $6.56/share), and Austin Ekeler (-13%, $4.31/share) are priced at what might be discounts heading into a “we’re still here” game.

AND, while we usually try to single out one game per slot to get you in and out, we couldn't help but notice the...

Jameis Winston (+2%, $7.04/share) revenge game! You might not believe it, I might not believe it… but Jameis Winston believes he was the right choice for Tampa Bay over Tom Brady (+5%, $20.47/share), and you have to respect that. Brady is up 42% over the course of this season, and 111% since this time last year. Jameis’s stock is up a respectable +20% this season… but that all be damned. Winston is averaging just 186 pass YDs per game, and the Saints tout the 31st ranked passing attack. Alvin Kamara (+14%, $10.81/share) and Marquez Callaway (-11%, $1.32/share) have been the main factors keeping them afloat. They’re 4-2 and are the only, albeit mild, threat to the Bucs in the division. But it’s not rocket science – they’ve gotten this far by their defense. Bruce Arians even said that the Saints will feature the strongest defense his squad has had to face all season. That said, with the number of options this team has… one week its Mike Evans (+23%, $10.18/share), the next its Chris Godwin (+12%, $9.77/share). They’re up 31% and 2%, respectively, over the course of their season, and when they’re not on – it’s Leonard Fournette (+.33%, $7.54/share), up 41% this season, or Antonio Brown (0%, $9.26/share), up 61% this season, or… so on and so forth. This team has been cooking crazy for shareholders of late, and although it’ll be a tougher challenge this week, they remain to be portfolio bellwethers.

And, one last thing:

The 8pm EST Slate

Per BloggingTheBoys, the Cowboys are averaging 39 PPG over their last 4. To the Vikings credit, they’ll provide anything but an open field, and they’re defense is ranked 7th overall by PFF. But their rush defense has been markedly worse than their passing, where that overall ranking is averaged up. We know that the Dak (+10%, $10.30/share) & CeeDee (+35%, $6.09/share) has been on fire, but Zeke (+3%, $9.71/share) and Tony Pollard (-2%, $1.87/share) are BOTH up +53% since some early season troubles. These two crushed the Vikings when they played last year, and could be a pivotal win of today’s game as well. In all games against playoff contenders this year, again per BloggingTheBoys, the Vikings have surrendered an average of 145 rush YDs. We’re willing to bet that averages up today, too…

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

How to Win on PredictionStrike

What is PredictionStrike?

Insider Trading, Edition #2: Brian Martin, Dallas Cowboys