Sunday Shareholder Report, by Justin Andrew and PredictionStrike
Earlier this week I said I was excited for more football after the Bills and Patriots their disastrous offensive performance. However, I hadn't realized at the time the NFL overlords were giving us the "Detroit bowl." Now that we're past this, we can focus on the rest of the slate which is filled with plenty of playoffs and divisional intrigue.
The 1pm EST Slate
This is the game of the week in my opinion. The Cowboys
travel to Washington with the division likely in balance. Dak Prescott
($8.54) enters this game having thrown an interception in 2 of his last three
games. The Dallas offense has taken a step back over that stretch, having
scored just 3 touchdowns across three games.
Throughout the week we've heard Ezekiel Elliott
($6.91) has been battling through injury and Tony Pollard
($1.88) is a game-time decision as he's dealing with a plantar fascia injury.
The injuries appear to be coming at an inopportune time for this team who's
holding onto their division crown with a 2 game lead and 4 divisional games
left.
If the Cowboys are going to wrap up this division this
weekend they're going to need to rely upon Dak and the passing game. While the
running game is littered with injury, the receiving options are back healthy in
the nick of time. Amari Cooper
($4.93) came back last week and played through his first game since coming back
from COVID. With CeeDee Lamb
(-1%, $5.66), and Michael Gallup
(-1%, $2.83) this will be the second time in the three-game stretch that all
three of them are available. With the passing game back at full strength now is
a good time to buy your favorite Cowboy wide receiver as Washington is top ten
in the NFL in terms of yards per pass attempt, and has given up the most
passing touchdowns in the league this year.
If Washington is going to take the division they're going to
have to do so on the ground. The story of Taylor Heinicke
(-4%, $1.05) is great, but the Dallas passing defense is one of the best in the
NFL. The Cowboys' defense is tied for the 5th fewest touchdown passes this
season, but is near the bottom in terms of yardage given up. The story of this
game may come down to whether the Cowboys continue their league-leading
interception trend. If Washington doesn't establish the run with Antonio Gibson
(7%, $2.70) early Heinicke will continue to throw interceptions. Consider that
in his 11 starts Heinicke has thrown 10 interceptions in 6 of his 11 starts.
Other Storylines to watch Sunday:
- Davis Mills ($2.19) has been named the starter for the Texans for the remainder of the year. Some have suggested this is a move to tank, but I view this as an audition for the once 5-star #1 recruit out of high school. Lest we forgot, Mills dominated the Patriots earlier this year in a tough loss.
- With the Raiders and Chiefs squaring off in Kansas City this weekend the Raiders find themselves back in the must-win category. Josh Jacobs (15%, $1.76) appears to be recovered from his early-season struggles and had a career game through the air last week. Jacobs may get a boost from a new coaching staff next year and now is a good time to scoop him up.
- I've been a Zach Wilson (12%, $3.73) apologist most of the year, and want to point out that he was the rookie of the week last week. Wilson is getting better whether people want to admit that or not. I don't expect him to play well against this Saints pass defense, but his price is low enough to grab him and profit next year.
- With the firing of Joe Brady, I'm interested to see how Cam Newton ($5.72) does this week against his familiar foe in the Falcons. Newton looked like a disaster two weeks ago, and as a result, must win out if they want to lock up a playoff berth. It will be interesting to see what this offense looks like this week.
The 4pm EST Slate
Buffalo Bills @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another big game this weekend to watch is the Buffalo Bills
and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coming off a loss to New England Josh Allen and
company now draw the short end of the schedule stick and play Tom Brady.
In what is likely to be the highest-scoring game of the week
I'm curious to see how Tampa Bay attacks this Bills defense. While New England
ran the ball at will on Monday with success it would behoove Tampa Bay to do
the same, or so one would think. However, two weeks ago we Tre White go down
for the season due to an ACL injury leaving this pass defense thin at the
position. While Buffalo still has Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, it will be
interesting to see just how much Tom Brady
(9%, $18.53) can expose Dane Jackson this weekend. My hot take, he will expose
him very badly.
However, Buffalo isn't the only team entering this game
finding difficulty concerning defending the pass. Tampa Bay is tied for 8th in
terms of most passing touchdown given up this season, and I don't think that
will improve this weekend. While the Bills would like to run the ball better,
they, unfortunately, are not able to do this consistently. At this point in the
season that would be difficult to improve upon. As such I'm out on Zack Moss
($2.62), Matt
Breida (-15%, $0.62), and Devin
Singletary (-15%, $0.74).
If the Bills are going to re-establish themselves as a top-shelf
team this is going to be a game they're going to have to find a way to win. As
such, if they're going to do so Josh Allen
(-11%, $14.65) and Stefon Diggs
(-12%, $9.36) are going to have to re-create their 2020 bromance.
Other Storylines to watch:
- After a highlight-reel performance last week, will Justin Herbert (6%, $11.41) put up another clunker? The trend looks viable as the Giants defense has been playing well as of late.
- Detroit looks for their first winning streak since October of 2020 against Homer Simpsons' Denver Broncos.
- Another game with playoff implications goes down between the Bengals and 49'ers. Eli Mitchell ($1.77) isn't looking like he's playing this week against one of the better run defenses. If they are going to keep their playoff hopes alive they'll have to turn to Jimmy Garoppolo (-1%, $2.39). It will be interesting to see if the Bengals pass more than they run this game after Joe Mixons' (-14%, $15.09) dreadful performance last week.
Sunday Night Football
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Justin Fields
($4.06) is back in the saddle again. The Chicago Bears head to Lambo field in
December with no snow in the forecast. All things considered, the weather looks
like it will cooperate.
Fields is searching for his first 300-yard game and
multi-touchdown performance. While many in the fantasy industry pumped Fields
as a can't miss Konami code quarterback he has suffered the same fate as his
rookie brethren. While many don't expect the Bears to win this game we're all
tuning in to see if Fields can show us why he's the guy in Chicago. While a win
would be great for him, perhaps just getting through the game without a sack is
what Bears fans should aim for.
As for the Packers, Aaron Rodgers
($13.19) comes in nursing a toe injury and should be getting Aaron Jones
($5.52) back from injury. I'm genuinely curious to see how the Packers
distribute touches should Jones come back from his injury (he's currently not
on their injury report). AJ Dillon looked good in Jones's absence.
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