Insider Trading, Manny Galarza on the Contender Series Part 2 | From PredictionStrike & Alex True

Happy Tuesday everyone, and welcome to another mid-week Insider Trading article! We are gathered today to talk more MMA stocks; regarding the Contender series, to be more specific. We previewed week one of the 2022 DWCS season a couple weeks ago, and let’s just say the fighters left much to be desired. The only good part of week one was Manny Galarza’s breakdown in the Insider Trading article. But it was a fair trade off – what we lacked in excitement, we gained in a new Insider with immense knowledge. So it’s my pleasure to reintroduce you all to Manny, host of the MMA Fight Club full card breakdown podcast and YouTube channel.

A lot of the time, investors can gain an edge if they comb through fighter’s regional film to discover weaknesses or height/reach discrepancies etc. It takes dedication, and a lot of patience with some of the smaller promotions whether it’s bad film quality, or just lack of film in general. It can be daunting to find, and even if you find it, what exactly are you looking for? Do yourself a favor, and leave the hard work to the professionals like Manny. All you have to do is go follow him on YouTube, and let him teach you everything you’ll need to know about these young prospects. If you’re on the fence, or rolling your eyes, do yourself a favor and read the interview with Manny below. He shares more insight in a couple paragraphs then you will find on most websites. It’s my pleasure to have someone like Manny in the Insider Trading family, so without further ado, let’s get ready for DWCS week three!

Alex: We are entering into the third week on the DWCS tonight, but before we dive into the card, let’s do a little recap for weeks one and two. Week one and two couldn’t have been more different in terms of fight results. Week one only saw one fight finished, whereas week two only saw one fight reach the scorecards. Should we expect the rest of the season to be high intensity like we saw in week two? 

Manny: Yes, yes and yes!  First of all, let’s take a moment to recognize the brilliance of the fight promotion skills at hand.  Part of the brilliance is understanding the fan base.  Exciting fights sell PPVs, increase viewership, and so on.  Dana has made it crystal clear that he has no interest in points fighters that are looking for decision wins. Dana wants carnage! I suspect we will see more fireworks in week three and beyond.

Alex: In week one, Dana awarded one fighter a UFC contract, and five contracts in week two. Out of those six contracts, does anyone stand out as a potential buy and hold stock?

Manny: We can add one more to the list because news broke over the last 48 hours that Shannon Ross ($0.66), week two loser, has been awarded a contract.  Of the seven contract winners, Francis Marshall ($1.03) has the biggest upside in my opinion.  You can pick up for cheap right now but he is going to improve in value.  He has the ingredients to be a solid UFC fighter in a division that is rich with talent.  It’s way too early to say he has championship potential but he is off to a very good start.  The second fighter that caught my eye is Waldo Cortes-Acosta ($1.33).  The heavyweight division is a wasteland of aging fighters playing musical chairs in the rankings.  Acosta has a natural heavyweight body at 6’4, he can wrestle and he is very young for a heavyweight.   In theory, he could have a long run in the UFC.  Billy Goff ($1.13), Vinicius Salvador ($0.69), Chris Duncan ($0.81) and Joe Pyfer ($1.48) all had exciting finishes. But, reckless fighting styles lead to short MMA careers.  Chris Duncan and Billy Goff were both significantly dazed in their fights.  A UFC level fighter will test their durability. Salvador and Pyfer are gonna be tons of fun to watch but that will come at a price.  

Alex: Tonight we enter week three of the contender series, which is headlined by a highly anticipated Bo Nickal. Can you share with the readers who Bo is, what’s his background, and why exactly so many people are excited for his potential entry into the UFC? 

Manny: Bo Nickal ($1.27) is the popular new jock in school that everyone is chattering about.  The word on the street is that Bo can wrestle.  We did a little research and came across some of his wrestling credentials.  Bo Nickal went 183-7 in high school, won three state titles in Texas, won three NCAA division one championships at Penn State and qualified for the 2020 US Olympic Trials.   So yes, “Bo knows wrestling”.  Bo made his MMA amateur debut about a year ago.  He won two amateur bouts with finishes in both fights.  He made his pro MMA debut a few months ago with a thirty-three second KO win.  He does most of his training at Penn State but he also has access to various top MMA gyms.  Prior to making the formal transition to MMA, Bo was hired by several high-profile fighters to help them with their wrestling.  We all know he can wrestle.  Even more impressive about Bo is how quickly his striking game has picked up.  He is a much better striker than most wrestlers who transition to MMA this late in their career.  His thirty-three second knock-out victory in his pro debut is a testament to that.  Bo Nickal will more than likely get the win on Tuesday night.  According to the books, he is just about a guarantee to win.  Vegas has him priced at -2400 on the money line which is a bit crazy considering he is 1-0 as a pro.  The only questions that remain are how will Bo finish his opponent and what type of contract will the UFC offer him.  Some have speculated that the UFC will award him a “developmental” contract.  This type of contract would allow him to fight outside of the UFC for a few fights before jumping into the deep end of the pool.  It makes sense considering his lack of experience, age and potential.  If he wins by decision, Dana still may award him a developmental contract so the UFC doesn’t lose him to another promotion.  Barring a very bad showing, Dana recognizes the value of this American prospect so he will work out something with Bo.

Alex: All the attention is going to Bo, but we have nine other fighters introducing themselves to the world tonight. Anyone else stand out as someone who might be a legit UFC stock to hold?

Manny: Heavyweights should be considered by default.  The UFC just re-signed Chase Sherman for his third tour of duty to give you an idea of how barren the heavyweight landscape is.  The laws of supply and demand force me to acknowledge the value of the big boys on DWCS.  Jamal Pogues ($0.85) doesn’t pop out on film.  He wrestles a lot which is a red flag if you are looking for an exciting heavyweight.  Then again, a good ol fashion ground and pound finish can be exciting too.  Pogues is fighting a guy with a lot of question marks so this fight is very hard to predict.  But, whoever wins this fight may be worth a small investment because of the void in the UFC heavyweight division. 

Now moving on to the prospect I like most on the week three card (besides Bo of course).  My man Clayton “Concrete” Carpenter!  Carpenter ($0.88) has the “it” factor.  He is undefeated with finishes in four of his five pro fights.  He is good looking and has a confident swagger about him.  At the same time, he isn’t cocky.  I can appreciate his balanced fighting style and think he would be a great addition to the UFC flyweight division.  A division that’s been run by Deiveson Figueiredo and Brandon Moreno the past few years.  Carpenter can make some traction in this very competitive division.   If you want to get in early on a hot prospect that is priced under a dollar a share, Clayton is worth consideration. 

Erik Silva ($0.80) also deserves a mention.  The big downside with Silva is that he is in his early thirties so he will naturally have a limited shelf life in the UFC. But, he is an exciting fighter and the time is now for him.  The featherweight division is led by Alexander Volkanovski ($6.72).  But, as you move down the rankings I can see Silva challenging fighters such as Dan Ige, Edson Barbosa and Shane Burgos.  He isn’t ready to challenge the  top ten but that could change in a year from now.

Alex: I know we have spoken about DWCS exclusively over the past two articles, but let’s move to the UFC San Diego card quickly. One of the best strategies for investors is to find stocks and invest early. Is there anyone on this weekend's card we should be investing in now, and holding for Saturday? 

Manny: David Onama ($1.45) opened at $1.02 a share on February 14th.  Since then, his value has increased 42% while he has also picked up two more wins in the UFC.  Onama is priced at -250 on the money line heading into this weekend's fight.  He is only 28 years old and has a combined record of 20-1 between his pro and amateur career.  His pro record is 10-1 with all ten wins via finish.  His only loss was in the UFC via decision three years ago when he was only 25 years old.  Another good showing from Onama on Saturday will move him further up the UFC rankings and surely increase his value.  He has been impressive recently and the UFC is offering him a tremendous springboard by booking him for the co-main slot in front of a live crowd.

Josh Quinlan ($1.00) is a big question mark but he has the physical tools to be special.  The glaring issue(s) has been the positive drug tests.  Rumors are swirling about him failing a test as recent as last week.  Putting that aside, he is a genuine talent with a big upside.  These are the kind of prospects we need to take a closer look at.  He is undefeated at 29 years old, he earned his UFC contract via the DWCS last year.  That win was later overturned after Quinlan tested positive for steroids.  Quinlan opened at $1.00 last week and he is priced at -230 on the money line.  More than likely, he walks through his opponent on Saturday.  There is the potential for both short term and long term value with Quinlan.  Yes, Quinlan is a risky investment.  Then again, his ceiling is very high.  As the saying goes, “no risk it, no biscuit”. 

As always, it was a pleasure shooting the breeze with you Alex.  You can find more from MMA Fight Club via any of the below portals.  Enjoy the fights.  Ciao!

There we have it folks! I know Manny was just on here a couple weeks ago, but when the pool of knowledge is this deep, you have to take advantage! Thank you once again for joining us Manny, and I hope we can all make some profitable investments tonight and Saturday! Don't forget to follow Manny on all his socials, and of course check out the podcast and Youtube channel. And of course, don't forget to check out the Blue Chips Twitter page for all things PredictionStrike. NFL and NBA rookies will be IPOing soon, so get ready for a lot of content as soon as they drop! Until next time! 

Happy trading,

Alex True

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